US Presses China To Revalue

You have to admire the US for its persistence in pressuring China to appreciate the Yuan, though it’s not as if anyone seriously expected it to back off. Fresh from the recent G8 conference and enjoying the spotlight of the media, US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson called in China to put its money where its mouth is, and relax its hold on the Yuan. Paulson expressed dissatisfaction with the pace at which the Chinese currency has appreciated- approximately 10% since 2005. He even insinuated that there would be repercussions for the US-China trade relationship if this demand was not at least partially fulfilled. To add insult to injury, he warned that US public opinion of China is already at a low point, in the wake of the quality control issues with Chinese exports and the subsequent recalls. Reuters reports:

“While we are trying to lower barriers to trade, there is a risk that some in China are stepping away from long-standing policies of closer global economic integration -- policies which have been a source of China's incredible growth.”

Read More: Paulson wants faster China yuan rise

Asian Central Banks Plot Intervention

Asian currencies, with the exception of the Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen, have notched stellar performances this year. The currencies of Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, to name but a few, have experienced double-digit increases (in percentage terms) against the Dollar. Worried about the impact of a rising currency on export growth, Asian central banks are in the process of intervening in forex markets. Singapore, which uses currency manipulation as a form of monetary policy, believed to have already made purchases of US government bonds in order to depress the Singapore Dollar. South Korea, as well, has a history of forex intervention, albeit unsuccessful intervention, and may issue currency stabilization bonds before year-end. The Gulf Daily News reports:

The Bank of Korea has repeatedly stated that it would closely monitor currency markets, expressing concern about the level of the won and money supply growth.

Read More: Asian banks calm currency surge

India's Forex Reserves Top $250 Billion

Among the so-called BRIC developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China), India is probably the second hottest economy at the moment, after China of course. And following in the footsteps of other developing countries, it is quickly building a massive stock of foreign exchange reserves in order to hold down inflation. Previously, I resisted covering India, because its reserves were small compared to those of China and Japan and hence its potential impact on the Dollar was limited. However, having set another record, India's forex reserves now top $250 Billion, which rank the country among the highest in the world in this regard. In fact, India is accumulating reserves at the blistering rate of $3 Billion/week! The breakdown of the reserves (in terms of foreign currency) is unclear, but it seems reasonable to believe that it is dominated by Dollar assets.

Read More: India’s forex reserves rise to record $251 billion