Volatility Threatens Carry Trade

Advocates of the carry trade have long argued that the only thing that could possibly put an end to their fun would be a significant rise in Japanese interest rates, which seems quite unlikely at this point. However, a new threat to the carry trade has emerged: volatility. Global capital markets have see-sawed over the last few months as credit concerns have surfaced, often related to America's housing bubble. This month, the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Kiwi have been the two worst performers among the world's 17 most actively-traded currencies. This is notable because these two currencies are most likely to be on the long end of carry trades. Bloomberg News reports:

The currencies also slid against the U.S. dollar as Citigroup Inc. said it will report as much as $11 billion in additional writedowns, reducing demand for so-called carry trades.

Read More: Australian, New Zealand Dollars Fall on Renewed Credit Concerns

HK Maintains USD Peg

This week, the Central Bank of Hong Kong intervened in forex markets for the first time in nearly two years, by purchasing over $1 Billion in US government securities. The intervention was precipitated by fluctuation on the HK Dollar, which had been tending towards the upper end of its tightly controlled trading band. Strength in the HK economy combined with a strong performance in HK capital markets have sucked large amounts of foreign capital into the Chinese-controlled city-state, which exerted upward pressure on its currency. Hong Kong's Central Bank also matched the recent rate cut by the Fed with a rate cut of their own. Many analysts had put forth the idea that Hong Kong would scrap its peg when the Chinese Yuan slid past it, but this recent move suggests the Dollar peg is here to stay. The Financial Times reports:

Joseph Yam, HKMA chief executive, said on Thursday: “We again reaffirm that the [Hong Kong] government has been clear in its financial policy and is committed to maintaining the peg.”

Read More: Hong Kong To Stick With US Dollar

China Talks Up Diversification

A high-ranking official in China's government recently gave a speech urging the Central Bank to (continue to) diversify its vast holdings of foreign exchange, currently estimated at $1.4 Trillion and rising. The speech was atypical in its level of directness, as Chinese officials tend to speak with a certain degree of circumspection if they think there is any possibility that their comments will reach the public. Specifically, he advocated making a play on the current volatility in forex markets, by selling “weak currencies” in favor of “strong currencies.” In fact, the most recent data shows that China is already doing just that: its holdings of US government bonds have declined even as its reserves have risen. The Financial Times reports:

Although he later tried to play down his comments, saying he had not been speaking in an official capacity, the damage was done.

Read More: Dollar Sinks To New Lows

US Presses China To Revalue

You have to admire the US for its persistence in pressuring China to appreciate the Yuan, though it’s not as if anyone seriously expected it to back off. Fresh from the recent G8 conference and enjoying the spotlight of the media, US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson called in China to put its money where its mouth is, and relax its hold on the Yuan. Paulson expressed dissatisfaction with the pace at which the Chinese currency has appreciated- approximately 10% since 2005. He even insinuated that there would be repercussions for the US-China trade relationship if this demand was not at least partially fulfilled. To add insult to injury, he warned that US public opinion of China is already at a low point, in the wake of the quality control issues with Chinese exports and the subsequent recalls. Reuters reports:

“While we are trying to lower barriers to trade, there is a risk that some in China are stepping away from long-standing policies of closer global economic integration -- policies which have been a source of China's incredible growth.”

Read More: Paulson wants faster China yuan rise

Asian Central Banks Plot Intervention

Asian currencies, with the exception of the Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen, have notched stellar performances this year. The currencies of Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, to name but a few, have experienced double-digit increases (in percentage terms) against the Dollar. Worried about the impact of a rising currency on export growth, Asian central banks are in the process of intervening in forex markets. Singapore, which uses currency manipulation as a form of monetary policy, believed to have already made purchases of US government bonds in order to depress the Singapore Dollar. South Korea, as well, has a history of forex intervention, albeit unsuccessful intervention, and may issue currency stabilization bonds before year-end. The Gulf Daily News reports:

The Bank of Korea has repeatedly stated that it would closely monitor currency markets, expressing concern about the level of the won and money supply growth.

Read More: Asian banks calm currency surge

India's Forex Reserves Top $250 Billion

Among the so-called BRIC developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China), India is probably the second hottest economy at the moment, after China of course. And following in the footsteps of other developing countries, it is quickly building a massive stock of foreign exchange reserves in order to hold down inflation. Previously, I resisted covering India, because its reserves were small compared to those of China and Japan and hence its potential impact on the Dollar was limited. However, having set another record, India's forex reserves now top $250 Billion, which rank the country among the highest in the world in this regard. In fact, India is accumulating reserves at the blistering rate of $3 Billion/week! The breakdown of the reserves (in terms of foreign currency) is unclear, but it seems reasonable to believe that it is dominated by Dollar assets.

Read More: India’s forex reserves rise to record $251 billion

TATA Mutual Fund

What Do We Stand For?

1. The Tata Asset Management philosophy is centred on seeking consistent, long-term results. When you choose to invest with Tata Mutual Fund, you get the benefits of financial planning.

2. Tata Asset Management aims at overall excellence, within the framework of transparent and rigorous risk controls.

3. We constantly benchmark our efforts against these tenets of performance:-

* Consistency

We consistently strive to deliver results through our value based investing methodology, keeping alive the belief of the late doyen of the Tata Group, Mr. JRD Tata, that money received from the people should go back to them several times over.

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Tata Mutual Fund offers investors a broad range of managed investment products in various asset classes and risk parameters, within operational flexibility to suit their varied investment needs.

* Stability

Our commitment to the highest quality of service and integrity are the foundation upon which clients can build their trust with us.

* Service

We offer a wide range of services to assist the investor in his financial planning experience with us. Our services are designed keeping the needs of our investors in focus, affording them a smooth and hassle free financial planning process.


*Tata 5 core values *

1. Leadership with Trust - At the Tata Group our purpose is to improve the quality of life of the communities we serve. We do this through leadership in sectors of national economic significance, to which the Group brings a unique set of capabilities. This requires us to grow aggressively in focused areas of business.

2. Our heritage of returning to society what we earn evokes trust among consumers, employees, shareholders and the community. This heritage is being continuously enriched by the formalisation of the high standards of behaviour expected from employees and companies.

3. The Tata name is a unique asset representing leadership with trust. Leveraging this asset to enhance Group synergy and becoming globally competitive is the route to sustained growth and long-term success.

4. The Tata Group has always sought to be a value-driven organisation. These values continue to direct the Group's growth and businesses. The five core Tata values underpinning the way we do business are:

a) Integrity: We must conduct our business fairly, with honesty and transparency. Everything we do must stand the test of public scrutiny.

b) Understanding: We must be caring, show respect, compassion and humanity for our colleagues and customers around the world, and always work for the benefit of the communities we serve.

c) Excellence: We must constantly strive to achieve the highest possible standards in our day-to-day work and in the quality of the goods and services we provide

d) Unity: We must work cohesively with our colleagues across the Group and with our customers and partners around the world, building strong relationships based on tolerance, understanding and mutual cooperation.

e) Responsibility: We must continue to be responsible, sensitive to the countries, communities and environments in which we work, always ensuring that what comes from the people goes back to the people many times over.

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@shish {Cool Wizard}

HDFC Forex Services

Are you a frequent flyer for business or often holiday abroad? Are you an importer/exporter of foreign and Indian goods?If you need to deal in foreign currency and keep tabs on exchange rates every now and then, transfer monies to India, make payments etc., HDFC Bank has a range of products and services that you can choose from to transact smoothly, efficiently and in a timely manner.

We offer the following Foreign Exchange Products and Services :

Foreign Exchange and Trade Services

The following are different methods of transacting in Foreign Exchange and remitting money.
1. Travellers Cheques
2. Foreign Currency Cash
3. Foreign Currency Drafts
4. Cheque Deposits
5. Remittances
6. Doorstep Delivery

7. Cash to Master
8. Trade Services

9. Forex Card

10. Forex Services Branch Locator

Important guidelines and schedules

All Foreign Exchange transactions are conducted by strictly adhering to RBI guidelines. Depending on the nature of your transaction or point of travel, you will need to understand your Foreign Exchange limits.

1. RBI Guidelines
2. Forex Limits
3. Non HDFC Bank Account Holders
4. FAQs

Forex News

Check out this website for latest news and updates about Forex.

Link : http://www.forexnews.com/

Carry Trade Beginning To Unwind

Nearly two months ago, China’s stock market declined 15% in one session, leading capital markets around the world to drop off precipitously. This collapse quickly spread to forex markets, where spooked traders began to unwind their Japanese yen carry trades, fearful that the volatility would trigger a short squeeze, causing the Yen to rapidly appreciate. While the yen has returned to its former low levels, it seems foreign investors have prudently unwound up to 60% of their short positions in the Yen, anyway.

A quandary has plagued analysts, who are attributing the failure of the Yen to appreciate to a surge of carry trade interest by Japanese retail investors. Long term Japanese interest rates remain pathetically low, and Japanese investors have taken to buying securities in American and Australia, where yields are significantly higher. However, if Japan's Central Bank begins to raise rates- as analysts expect will take place as soon as May- investors could be persuaded to repatriate their capital to Japan. The Economist reports:

Retail investors’ direct share of Japan's foreign-currency market may be 20-30%, whereas individuals’ holdings of foreign currency exceed foreigners' holdings of Japanese securities. The clue to the yen's future, in other words, lies with the little man.

Dollar Hinges On Economic Data

This week witnessed a flurry of economic data, capped by tomorrow’s scheduled release of employment and GDP statistics. At the beginning of the week, the perennially pointless monthly durable goods statistics indicated a rise in durable goods orders, which Dollar bulls interpreted as a good sign. However, real estate data indicated a lower-than-expected rise in new home sales as well as a dramatic decline in the sale of existing homes. Polled economists are predicting that tomorrow’s news will likely fall into the dovish category, painting a picture of an economy that has already peaked and making the case for the Fed to hold interest rates at current levels. However, the bond markets are still pricing in 1-2 rate hikes over the near-term, which currency markets may use to prop up the Dollar. The Daily Reckoning reports:

Money supply growth has a negative impact on the dollar. Inflation is a currency killer, and looking at the broadest measure (M3), money supply growth is out of control.

New Forex Products To Meet Rising Demand

Anecdotal evidence that forex trading is expanding rapidly can be found everywhere these days, from the decline in volatility wrought by a surplus of liquidity, to the proliferation of websites and companies that offer guidance to retail currency investors. Lured by the most liquid market in the world and 100:1 leverage, hedge funds have also piled in currencies. As a result, in its not-yet-released annual report, the Bank of International Settlements is expected to confirm that daily forex volume now exceeds $3 Trillion, up from $2 Trillion in 2004! Wall Street investment banks are springing into action to meet this growing demand for forex products and services. This week, Citigroup launched an ETF based on “common FX strategies. Credit Suisse, meanwhile, launched an index that lets investors mimic the carry trade.

Forex Tips

Why do hundreds of thousands online traders and investors trade the forex market every day, and how do they make money doing it?

This two-part report clearly and simply details essential tips on how to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

1. Trade pairs, not currencies - Like any relationship, you have to know both sides. Success or failure in forex trading depends upon being right about both currencies and how they impact one another, not just one.

2. Knowledge is Power - When starting out trading forex online, it is essential that you understand the basics of this market if you want to make the most of your investments.

The main forex influencer is global news and events. For example, say an ECB statement is released on European interest rates which typically will cause a flurry of activity. Most newcomers react violently to news like this and close their positions and subsequently miss out on some of the best trading opportunities by waiting until the market calms down. The potential in the forex market is in the volatility, not in its tranquility.

3. Unambitious trading - Many new traders will place very tight orders in order to take very small profits. This is not a sustainable approach because although you may be profitable in the short run (if you are lucky), you risk losing in the longer term as you have to recover the difference between the bid and the ask price before you can make any profit and this is much more difficult when you make small trades than when you make larger ones.

4. Over-cautious trading - Like the trader who tries to take small incremental profits all the time, the trader who places tight stop losses with a retail forex broker is doomed. As we stated above, you have to give your position a fair chance to demonstrate its ability to produce. If you don't place reasonable stop losses that allow your trade to do so, you will always end up undercutting yourself and losing a small piece of your deposit with every trade.

5. Independence - If you are new to forex, you will either decide to trade your own money or to have a broker trade it for you. So far, so good. But your risk of losing increases exponentially if you either of these two things:

Interfere with what your broker is doing on your behalf (as his strategy might require a long gestation period);

Seek advice from too many sources - multiple input will only result in multiple losses. Take a position, ride with it and then analyse the outcome - by yourself, for yourself.

6. Tiny margins - Margin trading is one of the biggest advantages in trading forex as it allows you to trade amounts far larger than the total of your deposits. However, it can also be dangerous to novice traders as it can appeal to the greed factor that destroys many forex traders. The best guideline is to increase your leverage in line with your experience and success.

7. No strategy - The aim of making money is not a trading strategy. A strategy is your map for how you plan to make money. Your strategy details the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risk. Without a strategy, you may become one of the 90% of new traders that lose their money.

8. Trading Off-Peak Hours - Professional FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds posses a huge advantage over small retail traders during off-peak hours (between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they can hedge their positions and move them around when there is far small trade volume is going through (meaning their risk is smaller). The best advice for trading during off peak hours is simple - don't.

9. The only way is up/down - When the market is on its way up, the market is on its way up. When the market is going down, the market is going down. That's it. There are many systems which analyse past trends, but none that can accurately predict the future. But if you acknowledge to yourself that all that is happening at any time is that the market is simply moving, you'll be amazed at how hard it is to blame anyone else.

10. Trade on the news - Most of the really big market moves occur around news time. Trading volume is high and the moves are significant; this means there is no better time to trade than when news is released. This is when the big players adjust their positions and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow.

Foreign Exchange Market

The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is by far the largest market in the world, in terms of cash value traded, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. The trade happening in the forex markets across the globe currently exceeds $1.9 trillion/day (on average). Retail traders (individuals) are currently a very small part of this market and may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks and may be targets of forex scams.